A resource for COVID-19 modeling built and maintained by the University of Michigan EpiMath team.
We work on modeling, data analysis, and technology to inform and assist in pandemic response.
Here you can find different resources including models, infographics, and reports about the COVID-19 pandemic. We focus mostly on Michigan but also have some resources for the Midwest region. Explore the menu above or see below for some examples of the work we do.
Our team has developed several models for understanding and predicting COVID spread:
We build apps, tools, and explorables, including:
We develop a wide range of infographics and brief reports to help make sense of new information about COVID-19.
MI Safe Start Map: Track the risk levels of COVID-19 indicators
MI Symptoms: A free online tool built to help organizations screen their members for COVID-19 symptoms
Michigan COVID-19 Mapping: Putting COVID-19 in its spatial and social context
Ridge Regression Modeling updated
Michigan and Midwest data updated through 03/22/2021
MERC-region data update through 03/07/2021
UM Modeling updated
State and Regional Models updated
Stay-at-Home model added
Pause-to-Save-Lives model added
Interactive tools added April 2021
R0 explorable added
Vaccine Projections tool added
Additional Tools added
Model forecasts are generated using a ridge regression model, which is a machine learning approach that ‘learns’ patterns based on previous case, death, mobility, and vaccination data. This model has also been implemented at the national and state level as part of the CDC Forecasting Hub (see also the forecasting hub visualizer). Code and methodological details for the ridge regression model are available on GitLab.
Forecasts generated as of 12-13-2021. Case and death data are sourced from the JHU repository, and are plotted by report date.
For ease of viewing, confidence intervals are not displayed on the per million plots. To view the confidence ranges, please see the non-per million plots.