About the Site

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DataEpi: UM Epidemic Data, Analysis, and Tech Center

A resource for COVID-19 modeling built and maintained by the University of Michigan EpiMath team.

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What We Do

We work on modeling, data analysis, and technology to inform and assist in pandemic response.

Resources We Provide

Here you can find different resources including models, infographics, and reports about the COVID-19 pandemic. We focus mostly on Michigan but also have some resources for the Midwest region. Explore the menu above or see below for some examples of the work we do.

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Modeling

Our team has developed several models for understanding and predicting COVID spread:

Interactive Tools

We build apps, tools, and explorables, including:

Infographics

small image of an example infographic, illustrating the stages of COVID

We develop a wide range of infographics and brief reports to help make sense of new information about COVID-19.

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MI Start Map

logo for MI Safe Start, which is a computer power button with an image of Michigan inside of it

MI Safe Start Map: Track the risk levels of COVID-19 indicators

MI Symptoms

logo for MI Symptoms, which is the word MI SYMPTOMS in all-caps. The O in SYMPTOMS has been replaced with an icon of smartphone with a pulse inside of it

MI Symptoms: A free online tool built to help organizations screen their members for COVID-19 symptoms

Michigan COVID Mapping

logo for Epibayes Lab, which is an outline-mesh of lines in the shape of Michigan. A star-shape is located where Ann Arbor is.

Michigan COVID-19 Mapping: Putting COVID-19 in its spatial and social context

Recent Updates

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Modeling

Ridge Regression Modeling updated

  • Michigan and Midwest data updated through 03/22/2021

  • MERC-region data update through 03/07/2021

UM Modeling updated

  • CHRC slides added

State and Regional Models updated

  • Stay-at-Home model added

  • Pause-to-Save-Lives model added

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Interactive Tools

Interactive tools added April 2021

Ridge Regression Models

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About the Models

Model forecasts are generated using a ridge regression model, which is a machine learning approach that ‘learns’ patterns based on previous case, death, mobility, and vaccination data. This model has also been implemented at the national and state level as part of the CDC Forecasting Hub (see also the forecasting hub visualizer). Code and methodological details for the ridge regression model are available on GitLab.

Forecasts generated as of 12-13-2021. Case and death data are sourced from the JHU repository, and are plotted by report date.

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Ridge Regression Models - Michigan

7-Day Average Cases per Million

7-Day Average Deaths per Million

7-Day Average Cases

7-Day Average Deaths

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Ridge Regression Models - Midwestern States

For ease of viewing, confidence intervals are not displayed on the per million plots. To view the confidence ranges, please see the non-per million plots.

7-Day Average Cases per Million

7-Day Average Deaths per Million

7-Day Average Cases

7-Day Average Deaths

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Ridge Regression Models - Mighican Economic Council Recovery (MERC) Region

7-Day Average Cases per Million

7-Day Average Deaths per Million

7-Day Average Cases

7-Day Average Deaths

State and Regional Models

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About State and Regional Models

We use a range of compartmental transmission models to understand COVID-19 transmission patterns and explore scenarios around social distancing, vaccination, and other changing dynamics of COVID-19 in Michigan. We are actively working to provide model documentation and code for these models in the near future, but in the meantime, below are several brief reports of some of our modeling results. Several of these reports have also been presented in the Data and Modeling Updates for the state of Michigan.

This model was also used for regular forecasting early in the pandemic. To see our previous forecasts, please check out our old forecasting dashboard.

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3/9/2021: Projecting the Spring Surge in Michigan

image of the spring surge modeling slide

Modeling results from early March, examining the potential for a resurgence in COVID-19 if social distancing is not maintained.

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1/26/2021: Examining the impact of the Pause to Save Lives

image of the first slide of the Pause to Save Lives modeling slide deck

Brief modeling and data analysis report examining the impact of the Pause to Save Lives in Michigan.

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Examining the impact of Stay Home Stay Safe

image of the first slide of the Stay Home Stay Safe counterfactual modeling report

Brief modeling report examining the impact of the Stay Home Stay Safe order in spring 2020 of the pandemic.

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UM Model Reports

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About the UM Campus Models

We use a combination of compartmental and agent-based network models to examine COVID-19 transmission on campus at UM. More details will be added to this page soon, however in the meantime, more info can also be found by viewing a recent presentation on our modeling work (part of the MICDE and SPH symposium, Computing our way out of a pandemic: modeling in the face of COVID-19).

Code

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We’re actively working on adding code for all of our models, so please check back to this page for updates.

Currently the code for the ridge regression forecasting model is available here.

Social Distancing Scenarios

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Exploring Social Distancing

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Summary

  • Early in the growth phase, social distancing efforts tend to delay the epidemic peak further, while efforts later in the growth phase nearer the peak tend to reduce the epidemic peak more.

  • Start efforts before the peak of the epidemic: social distancing is generally more effective when it is started during the growth phase of the epidemic—once the peak has already occurred the impact of social distancing is often much less.

  • Continue efforts until after the peak of the epidemic: to avoid a rebound in cases after social distancing efforts stop, social distancing efforts tend to work best if they continue past the peak of the epidemic. This means it will be important to consider how to make social distancing efforts sustainable.

Limitations

  • While in the growth phase of the epidemic, projecting the height and timing of the peak or overall duration of the epidemic is highly uncertain. Thus, these simulations should be used to explore potential scenarios and general patterns regarding the impact of social distancing, rather than for prediction of specific numbers.

  • This model represents just one simulation from the range of realistic parameter values used for forecasting.

  • This model does not account for stochasticity, i.e. the effects of randomness in contact patterns and the disease transmission process. This means that the model will not be able to capture the potential for random extinction of the epidemic during long periods with very few cases.

Testing Prescreening Scenarios

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Testing Prescreening Scenarios in Michigan

Vaccine Projections

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Vaccine Projections (Michigan/MERC/County)

What is R0

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What is R0?

Additional Tools

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Additional Tools

Members of our team have also worked on the following COVID-19 resources:

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logo for MI Safe Start, which is a computer power button with an image of Michigan inside of it

MI Safe Start Map: Track the risk levels of COVID-19 indicators

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logo for MI Symptoms, which is the word MI SYMPTOMS in all-caps. The O in SYMPTOMS has been replaced with an icon of smartphone with a pulse inside of it

MI Symptoms: A free online tool built to help organizations screen their members for COVID-19 symptoms

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logo for Epibayes Lab, which is an outline-mesh of lines in the shape of Michigan. A star-shape is located where Ann Arbor is.

Michigan COVID-19 Mapping: Putting COVID-19 in its spatial and social context

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Further Interactive Tools and Resources

Additional explorables developed by DataEpi and colleagues of the DataEpi team:

Infographics

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Infographics & Slides

Our team has developed a range of infographics to help understand COVID-19. Many of these infographics have also been presented in the Data and Modeling Updates for the state of Michigan.

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4/20/2021: Is the Spring Surge Plateauing?

image of the first slide from the Is the Springe Surge Plateauing slide deck

A modeling report examining whether the current spring 2021 case surge in Michigan is starting to plateau/decline. Estimates suggest slowing growth over the coming weeks with potential for plateau, however trends vary by region within Michigan.

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Comparing the CDC School Levels to MI Start Map Levels

image  of the first slide from the Comparing the CDC School Levels to MI Start Map Levels slide deck

An infographic and explainer comparing the CDC school metrics to the MI start map metrics.

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4/13/2021: Comparing Michigan COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout to Polio Vaccine Rollout

image  of the first slide from the Comparing the CDC School Levels to MI Start Map Levels slide deck

COVID-19 vaccine rollout has been rapid compared to historical vaccine rollout for polio.

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4/6/2021: Tipping the Scale

image  of the first slide from the Tipping the Scale slide deck

An illustration of some of the different factors that may lead to increasing or decreasing COVID-19 transmission (collaboration with Natasha Bagdasarian)

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4/6/21: COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy in Michigan

image  of the first slide from the COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy in Michigan slide deck

Recent estimates of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in Michigan based on the recent Delphi Group report. Approximately 76% of Michiganders report that they have received a COVID-19 vaccine or would accept one if offered.

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4/6/21: Chronic Condition COVID-19 Risks in Michiganders

image  of the first slide from the Chronic Condition COVID-19 Risks in Michiganders slide deck

An infographic examining some of the chronic conditions associated with increased risk of hospitalization and ICU admission, and the percent of Michiganders with these conditions.

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3/30/2021: Exponential Growth Projections of Hospitalizations by Age in Michigan

image  of the first slide from the Exponential Growth Projections of Hospitalizations by Age in Michigan slide deck

An infographic examining some of the chronic conditions associated with increased risk of hospitalization and ICU admission, and the percent of Michiganders with these conditions.

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Racial Disparities in COVID-19 Fatality and Incidence in Michigan

image  of the Racial Disparities in COVID-19 Fatality and Incidence in Michigan infographic

Infographic examining racial disparities in COVID-19 fatality and incidence in Michigan. Racial disparities in incidence rates explain observed disparities in COVID-19 fatality: People of color experience more fatality with increased exposure. Infographic by Ramya Naraharisetti & Nina Masters (covidmapping.org), based on Zelner et al., Clin Infect Dis. 2021 Mar 1;72(5):e88-e95. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa1723.

Also available on the web at covidmapping.org.

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3/30/2021: Pediatric Hospitalizations in Michigan

image  of the first slide from the Pediatric Hospitalizations in Michigan slide deck

Infographic examining CDC data on March-April 2021 trends for pediatric hospitalizations in Michigan.

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3/30/2021: Pediatric Hospitalization Disparities

image  of the first slide from the Pediatric Hospitalization Disparities slide deck

Infographic examining racial disparities in pediatric hospitalization rates. According to national CDC estimates from the summer, black and Hispanic or Latino children are disproportionately affected by severe COVID-19 leading to hospitalization.

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3/23/2021: Multi-System Inflammatory Syndrome in Children

image  of the first slide from the Multi-System Inflammatory Syndrome in Children slide deck

Overview and status update of Multi-System Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MISC) in Michigan.

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3/23/2021: The Race Between Vaccines and Variants

image  of the first slide from the Race Between Vaccines and Variants slide deck

Infographic examining two scenarios in the race between vaccines and variants (collaboration with Natasha Bagdasarian).

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3/1/2021: SVI and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in Michigan

image  of the first slide from the SVI and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in Michigan slide deck

Infographic on a study showing that social vulnerability index (SVI) is associated with COVID-19 incidence and mortality in Michigan (Karmakar et al., JAMA Network Open. 2021).

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Stages of COVID-19

image  of the first slide from the Stages of COVID-19 slide deck

Infographic illustrating the stages of COVID-19 infection, from initial exposure, to symptom onset if symptomatic, and through the infectious period. The graphic also illustrates how virus detection and infectiousness change over the course of the infection.

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Herd Immunity

image  of the first slide from the Herd Immunity slide deck

Infographic explaining herd immunity.

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Serology and Seroprevalence

image  of the first slide from the Serology and Seroprevalence slide deck

Infographic explaining serology and seroprevalence.

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Publications & Reports

Presentations

Commentaries, Amicus Briefs, etc.

Publications and Reports

Our Team

The COVID-19 Modeling Dashboard was made through the collective effort and contributions of:

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Marisa Eisenberg

an image of Marisa Eisenberg

Associate Professor of Epidemiology and Complex Systems

Marisa’s Team

Jeremy D’Silva

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Yu-Han Kao

an image of Yu-Han Kao

Emily Andrus

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Kate Steffes

an image of Kate Steffes

Administrative Assistant

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Emily Toth Martin

an image of Emily Martin

Associate Professor of Epidemiology

Emily’s Team

Peter DeJonge

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Epidemiologist

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Sharon Kardia

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Associate Dean and Millicent W. Higgins Collegiate Professor of Epidemiology

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Maryanne Charath

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Project Manager

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Stephanie Choi

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Designer

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Josh Petrie

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Research Assistant Professor, Epidemiology

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Michael Hess

an image of Michael Hess

Solution Architect Lead, Director of Infrastructure ActiveStep

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Michael Hayashi

an image of Michael Hayashi

Clinical Assistant Professor of Epidemiology

Michael’s Team

Chris Cadham

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Jules Gilbert

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Data Analyst

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Paul Resnick

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Associate Dean for Research and Faculty Affairs and Professor of Information, School of Information

MI Start Map Team

Cassie Eddy

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Claire-Isabelle Carlier

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Kris Steinhoff

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Elle O’Brien

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Marta Clanton

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Jessie Singh

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Kirtana Choragudi

an image of Kirtana Choragudi

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Jon Zelner

an image of Jon Zelner

Assistant Professor of Epidemiology

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Andrew Brouwer

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Assistant Research Scientist, Epidemiology

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Ridge Regression Team

Tom Schwarz

an image of Tom Schwarz

Asssociate Professor of Physics

Sabrina Corsetti

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Karl Falb

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Robert Myers

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Contact Us

If you have any questions, please contact Marisa Eisenberg at marisae@umich.edu.

News

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In the News